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Tan Xiaojun
·Senior reproductive medicine expert
·Postdoctoral fellow at Peking University
·PhD candidate at Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University
·Master’s tutor at Central South University
· Master's degree candidate in reproductive medicine at the University of South China
· Professional training at Huazhong University of Science and Technology and Tongji Hospital Reproductive Center
Expertise:
diagnosis and treatment of infertility, first/second/third generation IVF (including
          egg/sperm donation), microsperm retrieval, embryo freezing and resuscitation, artificial
          insemination (including husband's sperm and sperm donation), paternity testing, chromosomal
          disease
          diagnosis, high-throughput gene sequencing, endometrial receptivity gene testing and other
          clinical
          technology applications. Many of these technologies are at the leading level both domestically
          and
          internationally.
Date:
2026.02.24
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After two years of trying to conceive without success, is it a matter of fate or probability?

At 11 p.m., as the clinic was about to close, she sat silently in her chair for a long time.


Thirty-eight years old, married for five years, trying to conceive for two years.


“Doctor, is it because I'm too old? Is there no chance left?”


I've heard this question countless times.


But for most people asking it, the real concern isn't a medical issue—it's the fear of loss.


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I. Where exactly does the failure to conceive occur?

Many people oversimplify the process of “getting pregnant.”


But from a medical perspective, successful conception requires three conditions to be met simultaneously:


Egg quality meets standards


Sperm motility meets standards


A uterine environment conducive to implantation


A decline in efficiency at any single stage can dramatically reduce overall success rates.


What does turning 38 signify?


It doesn't mean “you can't conceive.”


Rather—

The proportion of high-quality eggs decreases.


For women aged 30, the rate of chromosomal abnormalities in embryos is approximately 20%-30%.

By age 38, this rises to around 50%.

For women over 40, it may exceed 60%.


This doesn't mean you can't conceive, but it does mean:


You may need more attempts to achieve a healthy embryo.


The issue isn't “whether you have a chance,”

but whether “time is still on your side.”


II. Why do some conceive at 38 on their first try, while others fail repeatedly at 32?

Many people see individual cases and start doubting themselves.


But medicine deals with population probabilities, not individual miracles.


Factors affecting success rates include:


Ovarian reserve (AMH)


Basal follicle count


Sperm DNA fragmentation rate


Presence of endometrial inflammation


Presence of hydrosalpinx


The “easy pregnancies” you see

may simply be women who happen to fall in the upper half of the probability distribution.


And you haven't undergone a comprehensive evaluation.


III. After two years of trying, is IVF the only option?

This question requires a rational response.


A fundamental clinical principle applies:


Under 35: Recommend testing after one year of unsuccessful attempts

Over 35: Recommend testing after six months of unsuccessful attempts


Note: “testing,” not “immediate IVF.”


The purpose of testing is to identify the specific issue.


If irregular ovulation is the cause, ovulation induction may suffice.

For mild fallopian tube issues, intervention is possible.

For poor sperm quality, lifestyle optimization or ICSI technology may be considered.


IVF is not the end goal.

It is merely—

an alternative pathway when natural conception proves inefficient.


IV. The true challenge lies in the cost of time

The reality for a 38-year-old:


Irreversible decline in egg quantity


Increased rate of chromosomal abnormalities


Higher miscarriage risk


Yet medical science advances.


The core purpose of assisted reproductive technology is not merely “creating life,”

but rather—

selecting probabilities.


For instance, third-generation IVF (PGT)

can screen embryos for chromosomal structural abnormalities,

reducing miscarriage rates caused by chromosomal issues.


But understand this:


It enhances “single-cycle implantation success rates,”

not “indefinitely extending fertility.”


V. Weighing Advantages and Risks Equally

If choosing to continue natural attempts:


Advantages:


Lower cost


Reduced psychological pressure


Risks:


Time loss


Further decline in ovarian reserve


If choosing assisted reproduction:


Advantages:


Enhanced efficiency


Shorter waiting cycles


Risks:


Financial burden


Physical strain


No 100% success guarantee


No choice is universally correct—

it hinges on your assessment of time and probability.


VI. The True Cruelty Lies Not in Age

The true cruelty lies in procrastination.

Many undergo their first comprehensive fertility assessment only at age 38.


Post-assessment findings often reveal:


- Significantly diminished AMH levels

- Markedly reduced basal follicle count

- Persistent sperm motility abnormalities


Had evaluation occurred two years earlier, options would have been broader.


Medicine cannot alter age,

but it can help you determine—

whether you're still within an optimizable window.


VII. Conclusion: You are not a failure, just needing more rational decisions

Before leaving that day, she said:


“It turns out it's not about having no chance, but about efficiency.”


Exactly.


Pregnancy is never fate.


It's probability, timing, physical condition, and choice.


Anxiety serves no purpose.


Systematic evaluation and rational decision-making—that's what matters.


If you're over 35 and trying to conceive,

and haven't gotten pregnant after six months, stop guessing with emotions.


Get a comprehensive evaluation.


Because—

Fear stems from the unknown,

and medicine's role is to reduce the unknown.


For fertility consultation in Kyrgyzstan, please contact your dedicated consultant

/Fertility Consultation /

Dr.Chan


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